Merkley evens race vs. Smith, poll claims

A new survey suggests Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has caught up with his more well-known rival, incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

The new survey, by Rasmussen Reports, pegs Merkley at 43 percent with 41 percent for Smith. When voters who lean toward one of the candidates are included, the two are tied at 46 percent. This is the first time an independent poll has not shown Smith in the lead this year.

Merkley's campaign trumpeted the news as evidence that he is mounting a strong challenge and that Smith is losing support among Oregon voters.

The Smith campaign dismissed the poll, saying it used a flawed methodology. Rasmussen conducts its surveys using recorded voices. Respondents answer by pressing keys on their touch-tone phones. While automated polling firms have had a decent track record in accurately predicting the outcome of political races, many polling experts distrust these surveys.

A month ago, Rasmussen said that Smith led Merkley, 47 percent to 38 percent. Since then, Rasmussen said Smith's support among Democrats has dropped from 23 percent to 14 percent.

Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said the poll showed that Smith's effort to appeal to independent and Democratic voters in his advertising has largely flopped. Canter said voters aren't buying the idea that Smith has a moderate voting record.

Smith spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride said the poll contained "questionable numbers from an often-dismissed pollster." She declined to reveal what Smith's own poll numbers say, but added: "We have always expected this to be a competitive race but one we fully expect Gordon Smith to win."

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted July 15 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, plus or minus.

The same poll also found that Democrat Barack Obama has a nine-point lead over Republican John McCain in Oregon in the presidential race. He leads 46 percent to 37 percent in the initial finding. When leaners are included, Obama is ahead, 49 percent to 40 percent.

Those numbers are consistent with eight other polls taken in the state in the past three months, all but one of which shows Obama with at least a six-point lead, according to Pollster.com.

Read Jeff Mapes' political blog, Mapes on Politics, Way West of the Beltway, every day at oregonlive.com/politics